October 28th, 2009 (Over / Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Eight Free NFL Picks
October 28th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Spread |
Our Spread |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| TEN |
JAC |
-3 |
+0.3 |
3.3 |
2 L |
L |
58.2% |
| NYJ |
MIA |
-3.5 |
+0.7 |
1.6 |
1 J |
W |
58.3% |
| DAL |
SEA |
-9.5 |
-14.2 |
1.4 |
1 J |
W |
58.7% |
| DET |
STL |
-3.5 |
+0.1 |
1.8 |
1 J |
W |
57.4% |
| GB |
MIN |
-3 |
0 |
1.4 |
0 J |
T |
55.8% |
| NO |
ATL |
-10 |
-11.9 |
1.8 |
0 |
|
54.1% |
| CHI |
CLE |
-13.5 |
-12 |
1.1 |
0 L |
W |
52.5% |
| BAL |
DEN |
-3.5 |
-1.9 |
0.5 |
0 L |
W |
51.8% |
| IND |
SF |
-11.5 |
-11.4 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| PHI |
NYG |
+1 |
+1.1 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| BUF |
HOU |
+3.5 |
+3.8 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| SD |
OAK |
-16.5 |
-15.6 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| ARZ |
CAR |
-10 |
-10.1 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| DET |
STL |
43 |
UNDER |
1.3 |
3 J |
37.2 |
58.5% |
| PHI |
NYG |
44 |
OVER |
1.7 |
1 J |
47.5 |
55.8% |
| ARZ |
CAR |
41 |
OVER |
1.3 |
0 J |
44.2 |
54.8% |
| BUF |
HOU |
41.5 |
UNDER |
3.2 |
0 J |
39.6 |
53.7% |
| SD |
OAK |
41.5 |
UNDER |
1 |
0 J |
38.7 |
53.7% |
| NO |
ATL |
54 |
OVER |
2.6 |
0 |
55.5 |
52.8% |
| CHI |
CLE |
40 |
UNDER |
1.2 |
0 J |
38.1 |
52.7% |
| IND |
SF |
44 |
OVER |
0.7 |
0 L |
45.2 |
51.4% |
| GB |
MIN |
47 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
50.3 |
50% |
| DAL |
SEA |
46 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
47 |
50% |
| TEN |
JAC |
45 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
42.9 |
50% |
| BAL |
DEN |
41.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
41.7 |
50% |
| NYJ |
MIA |
40.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
40.9 |
50% |
Week Seven was our second losing week (verses five winning weeks) of the season. Similar to week three, we won only 40% of our bet units. We are still running 58% YTD on bet units and 64% on best bets. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog. For new readers the green are best bets, yellow are single bets, blue are non-bet-worthy picks for office pools etc., and un-shaded are coin tosses (our model has zero confidence).
Be sure to compare this to our season totals. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
