November 18th, 2009 (Over/Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Eleven Free NFL Picks
November 18th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Line |
Our Line |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| KC |
PIT |
+10 |
+14.2 |
1.5 |
3 L |
L |
58% |
| DET |
CLE |
-3.5 |
-0.4 |
1.8 |
2 J |
W |
56.4% |
| MIN |
SEA |
-10.5 |
-13 |
1.4 |
1 J |
W |
54.9% |
| BAL |
IND |
+1 |
+3.5 |
1 |
1 J |
W |
54% |
| CAR |
MIA |
-3 |
-1 |
0.9 |
0 J |
L |
53.1% |
| STL |
ARZ |
+9.5 |
+10 |
8.3 |
0 |
W |
51.5% |
| NYG |
ATL |
-6.5 |
-7.8 |
0.6 |
0 |
W |
51.5% |
| OAK |
CIN |
+9.5 |
+10.2 |
0.6 |
0 |
L |
50.9% |
| TB |
NO |
+11.5 |
+9.3 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| HOU |
TEN |
-4.5 |
-3.1 |
0 |
0 |
. |
50% |
| CHI |
PHI |
+3 |
+3.5 |
0 |
0 |
. |
50% |
| DEN |
SD |
+4 |
+3.9 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| NE |
NYJ |
-10.5 |
-11.4 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| JAC |
BUF |
-9 |
-8.4 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| DAL |
WAS |
-11 |
-10.7 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| GB |
SF |
-6.5 |
-7.5 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| TB |
NO |
50.5 |
OVER |
8.7 |
3 L |
55.8 |
62.3% |
| CAR |
MIA |
42.5 |
UNDER |
3.4 |
2 J |
38.2 |
58.6% |
| DET |
CLE |
38 |
UNDER |
0.7 |
1 L |
33.4 |
54.8% |
| JAC |
BUF |
43.5 |
UNDER |
0.6 |
0 J |
40.6 |
52.9% |
| MIN |
SEA |
46 |
OVER |
0.7 |
0 L |
48.1 |
52.3% |
| GB |
SF |
41.5 |
OVER |
0.6 |
0 J |
43.8 |
52.3% |
| NYG |
ATL |
45.5 |
OVER |
0.6 |
0 |
46.4 |
50.9% |
| BAL |
IND |
44 |
OVER |
0.4 |
0 |
46.1 |
51.6% |
| CHI |
PHI |
45 |
OVER |
0.4 |
0 |
46.1 |
50.8% |
| HOU |
TEN |
48.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
47.7 |
50% |
| STL |
ARZ |
46.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
45.3 |
50% |
| DEN |
SD |
45 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
44 |
50% |
| NE |
NYJ |
45 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
45.9 |
50% |
| DAL |
WAS |
41.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
42.5 |
50% |
| KC |
PIT |
40 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
39.7 |
50% |
| OAK |
CIN |
36 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
35.5 |
50% |
Week Ten was a poor week (5/11). Our YTD bet units remain at 57% with best bets falling to 61% and non-bets falling to 55%. While this was humbling, it isn't unexpected. Most weeks have a 65% - 70% of winning for the week (individual bets are 55% - 62%) and we've won 67% of the season's weeks. We are still near the center our Expectation Value Probability Distribution. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog.
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
