Week 15 NFL Picks (Over/Under)
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Week Fifteen Free NFL Picks
Week fifteen NFL Picks (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Line |
Our Line |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| DEN |
OAK |
-14 |
-10.9 |
1.3 |
2 J |
L |
55.5% |
| NYJ |
ATL |
-6 |
-3.2 |
1.2 |
2 J |
L |
55% |
| WAS |
NYG |
+3 |
+0.2 |
1.2 |
2 L |
W |
55% |
| DET |
ARI |
+11.5 |
+14.1 |
1.2 |
2 L |
W |
54.6% |
| SD |
CIN |
-6.5 |
-9 |
1.1 |
1 L |
W |
54.3% |
| PHI |
SF |
-9.5 |
-7.2 |
1.1 |
1 L |
W |
53.9% |
| PIT |
GB |
-1 |
-2.6 |
1 |
0 K |
W |
52.6% |
| TEN |
MIA |
-3 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0 K |
W |
52.5% |
| BAL |
CHI |
-10.5 |
-9 |
1 |
0 |
W |
52.4% |
| JAC |
IND |
+3 |
+4.4 |
0.9 |
0 |
W |
52.2% |
| CAR |
MIN |
+7.5 |
+8.7 |
0.9 |
0 |
L |
51.8% |
| SEA |
TB |
-7 |
-7.9 |
0.9 |
0 |
L |
51.4% |
| KC |
CLE |
-1 |
-0.2 |
0.8 |
0 |
L |
51.2% |
| BUF |
NE |
+7 |
+7.5 |
0.8 |
0 |
W |
50.8% |
| NO |
DAL |
-7 |
-7.4 |
0.8 |
0 |
L |
50.5% |
| STL |
HOU |
+10 |
+9.7 |
0.8 |
0 |
W |
50.4% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| DEN |
OAK |
37 |
UNDER |
1.6 |
0 |
32.4 |
57.3% |
| DET |
ARI |
46.5 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 |
49.2 |
54% |
| JAC |
IND |
41.5 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 |
43.7 |
53.2% |
| PHI |
SF |
43.5 |
UNDER |
1.1 |
0 |
41.8 |
52.4% |
| WAS |
NYG |
43 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
44.1 |
51.4% |
| BAL |
CHI |
40.5 |
UNDER |
1 |
0 |
39.5 |
51.3% |
| KC |
CLE |
37 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
37.9 |
51.1% |
| NYJ |
ATL |
40 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
40.7 |
50.9% |
| NO |
DAL |
53.5 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
54.1 |
50.7% |
| STL |
HOU |
43 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
43.4 |
50.6% |
| TEN |
MIA |
41.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
41.1 |
50.5% |
| SD |
CIN |
43.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
43.1 |
50.4% |
| BUF |
NE |
40.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
40.2 |
50.4% |
| SEA |
TB |
39.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
39.2 |
50.4% |
| PIT |
GB |
41 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
41.2 |
50.2% |
| CAR |
MIN |
43 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
42.8 |
50.2% |
After going 8/8 against the spread (11/11 on bet units) in week 14 we are back up to 63% ATS for the season. We'll be adjusting our Expectation Value Probability Distribution to include only ATS betting, but we'll archive the full expectations that include over/unders. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog. We included MIN -4 in our near-bets even though it had zero confidence because the unadjusted z-statistic was 57%.
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
Best bets this week include WAS +3, ATL +6, OAK +14, and several more.
OAK +14
ATL +6
WAS +3
ARI -11.5
SD -6.5
SF +9.5
PIT -1
MIA +3
