NFL Week Five Free Pick Results
NFL Week Five Probability and Expectation Values
What happened to our smooth Gaussian distribution?  Our season totals and many of our individual weeks do show a smoother near normal distribution, however Week 5 had few total bets (five) and three strong best bets (3 units).  This feast or famine sort of betting makes for a messier distribution.  It's not as dramatic as it would be if we included parlay betting!

Also check out our blog on parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
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Week Five Expectation Value Probability Distribution
60%
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