Home	Away	Casino Spread	Our Spread	Confi dence	Bet Units	No Line	Z (Prob of Success)
STL	MIN	+9.5	+15.1	3.0	3 J	W	62.0%
ARZ	HOU	-5.5	+0.2	2.7	3 L	L	62.0%
NYG	OAK	-15.0	-17.5	3.2	1 J	W	55.5%
SF	ATL	-2.5	-0.1	1.4	0 J	L	54.1%
CAR	WAS	-3.5	-1.6	1.1	0 J	L	52.9%
BAL	CIN	-9.0	-10.4	1.5	0 L	L	52.5%
PHI	TB	-14.5	-15.6	1.2	0 J	W	51.7%
MIA	NYJ	+1.0	-0.8	0	0		50.0%
DET	PIT	+10.5	+11.9	0	0	W	50.0%
TEN	IND	+3.5	+4.7	0	0		50.0%
SEA	JAC	+3.0	+4.0	0	0	L	50.0%
KC	DAL	+9.0	+9.4	0	0	W	50.0%
DEN	NE	+3.0	+3.3	0	0	L	50.0%
BUF	CLE	-6.0	-5.7	0	0	L	50.0%

Home	Away	Casino OU	We Take	Confi dence	Bet Units	Our OU	Z (Prob of Success)
BUF	CLE	40.5	UNDER	1.8	3 J	35.1	59.0%
DEN	NE	41.0	OVER	3.2	1 L	42.9	53.9%
CAR	WAS	37.5	OVER	3.8	0 L	39.1	53.4%
BAL	CIN	41.5	OVER	1.5	0 L	43.6	53.4%
SEA	JAC	43.0	UNDER	0.9	0 J	40.7	52.9%
TEN	IND	45.5	OVER	1.2	0	47.4	52.8%
KC	DAL	43.0	UNDER	0.8	0 L	41.1	52.3%
PHI	TB	43.0	UNDER	0.6	0 L	42.0	51.0%
DET	PIT	44.0	UNDER	0.0		42.7	50.0%
STL	MIN	41.0	OVER	0.0		41.8	50.0%
MIA	NYJ	36.0	OVER	0.0		36.4	50.0%
SF	ATL	41.0	UNDER	0.0		40.0	50.0%
ARZ	HOU	50.5	OVER	0.0		53.7	50.0%
NYG	OAK	38.0	OVER	0.0		38.0	50.0%

October 7th, 2009 (Over / Under)

Happy's Free Picks J
Week Five Free NFL Picks

October 7th, 2009 (Line)

Our best bets this week include taking Under in the Cleveland vs Buffalo game, Houston plus the points (5.5), and Minnesota to beat the spread (-9.5).

Starting this week we are not including our zero confidence picks (50.0%) in our non-bet totals.

Be sure to compare this to our season totals.  Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.

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