Happy's Free Picks J
Week Four Free NFL Picks

September 30th, 2009 (Line)

Home	Away	Casino OU	We Take	Confi dence	Bet Units	Our OU	Z (Prob of Success)
MIN	GB	45.0	OVER	2.7	2 J	48.7	59.6%
SF	STL	37.5	UNDER	1.0	1 J	34.6	57.6%
NO	NYJ	45.0	OVER	1.0	1 L	47.1	55.6%
IND	SEA	44.0	UNDER	0.6	1 L	40.2	60.0%
MIA	BUF	37.0	UNDER	0.6	0 L	34.8	55.8%
CHI	DET	39.0	OVER	0.5	0 J	41.0	55.3%
DEN	DAL	42.5	OVER	0.2	0 L	45.3	57.4%
WAS	TB	37.0	UNDER	0.2	0 J	34.9	55.7%
HOU	OAK	42.0	OVER	0.1	0 L	42.7	51.8%
NE	BAL	44.5	OVER	0.0	0 J	45.9	53.6%
PIT	SD	43.0	UNDER	0.0	0 L	42.2	52.1%
KC	NYG	42.5	UNDER	0.0	0 L	41.4	53.0%
JAC	TEN	41.5	OVER	0.0	0 J	41.8	50.9%
CLE	CIN	38.0	UNDER	0.0	0 L	37.9	50.1%

September 30th, 2009 (Over / Under)

Home	Away	Casino Spread	Our Spread	Confi dence	Bet Units	No Line	Z (Prob of Success)
CHI	DET	-10.0	-12.6	2.3	2 J	W	57.8%
NE	BAL	-1.0	+1.9	1.3	2 L	L	58.4%
PIT	SD	-6.5	-0.2	0.8	1 L	W	68.1%
MIN	GB	-3.5	-6.2	0.9	1 J	W	58.0%
CLE	CIN	5.5	+7.7	0.6	0 L	W	56.6%
KC	NYG	+9.0	+13.5	0.5	0 J	W	63.2%
IND	SEA	-10.5	-12.7	0.4	0 J	W	56.4%
DEN	DAL	+3.0	+5.7	0.2	0 L	L	58.0%
SF	STL	-9.5	-7.6	0	0 L	W	55.6%
JAC	TEN	+3.0	1.3	0	0 J	L	55.0%
MIA	BUF	+1.0	-0.2	0	0 J	W	53.6%
NO	NYJ	-7.0	-7.7	0	0 J	W	52.0%
HOU	OAK	-9.5	-9.6	0	0 J	W	50.3%
WAS	TB	-7.0	-7.0	0	0 L	W	50.1%

Our best bets this week include taking Baltimore plus a point, Chicago to cover the spread, and Over in the Green Bay vs Minnesota Game on Monday Night.

Be sure to compare this to our season totals.  Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.

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