Picks Made December 8th, 2009 (Over/Under)
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Week Fourteen Free NFL Picks
Picks Made December 8th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Line |
Our Line |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| NE |
CAR |
-13.5 |
-9.8 |
2.1 |
2 J |
W |
58.2% |
| JAC |
MIA |
-3 |
+0.5 |
2 |
2 J |
W |
57.5% |
| KC |
BUF |
-1 |
+2.2 |
1.8 |
2 J |
W |
56.6% |
| BAL |
DET |
-13 |
-16.1 |
1.8 |
2 J |
W |
56.4% |
| MIN |
CIN |
-6.5 |
-9 |
1.4 |
1 J |
W |
54.8% |
| DAL |
SD |
-3 |
-1.1 |
1.1 |
1 J |
L |
53.2% |
| CHI |
GB |
+3 |
+4.7 |
1.1 |
1 J |
W |
52.9% |
| IND |
DEN |
-7 |
-8.7 |
1.1 |
0 J |
W |
52.9% |
| HOU |
SEA |
-6 |
-4.7 |
0.9 |
0 |
W |
52% |
| SF |
ARI |
+3 |
+3.9 |
0.7 |
0 |
. |
51.2% |
| ATL |
NO |
+9.5 |
+10.3 |
0.6 |
0 |
W |
51% |
| TEN |
STL |
-13 |
-12.6 |
0.4 |
0 |
W |
50.3% |
| CLE |
PIT |
+10 |
+10.3 |
0.3 |
0 |
L |
50.2% |
| OAK |
WAS |
+1 |
+0.8 |
0.3 |
0 |
W |
50.1% |
| NYG |
PHI |
-1 |
-0.8 |
0.3 |
0 |
. |
50.1% |
| TB |
NYJ |
+4 |
+4.2 |
0.2 |
0 |
W |
50.1% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| OAK |
WAS |
37.5 |
UNDER |
2.2 |
0 L |
33.3 |
57.5% |
| JAC |
MIA |
44 |
UNDER |
2 |
0 J |
40.1 |
56.9% |
| KC |
BUF |
37.5 |
UNDER |
1.6 |
0 J |
34.4 |
55.1% |
| IND |
DEN |
44 |
UNDER |
1.2 |
0 K |
41.9 |
53% |
| BAL |
DET |
40 |
OVER |
1.1 |
0 L |
41.9 |
52.5% |
| SF |
ARI |
44.5 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
46.2 |
52.3% |
| NYG |
PHI |
44.5 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
46.2 |
52.2% |
| CHI |
GB |
41 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
42.7 |
52.2% |
| DAL |
SD |
48.5 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
50.1 |
52.1% |
| NE |
CAR |
44 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
45.6 |
52.1% |
| MIN |
CIN |
43.5 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
44.9 |
51.7% |
| TB |
NYJ |
38 |
OVER |
0.7 |
0 |
38.9 |
51% |
| HOU |
SEA |
45 |
OVER |
0.5 |
0 |
45.5 |
50.4% |
| TEN |
STL |
41.5 |
OVER |
0.4 |
0 |
42 |
50.4% |
| ATL |
NO |
52 |
UNDER |
0.4 |
0 |
51.7 |
50.2% |
| CLE |
PIT |
34 |
OVER |
0.3 |
0 |
34.2 |
50.1% |
We're running over 60% ATS YTD and less than 50% on Over Unders. In addition, there is an assumption that we made in forming our Over/Unders that we are now questioning. As a result, we're not recommending betting on our Over/Unders. We will continue to post the Adjusted Z and our Over/Unders, but take them with a grain of salt. We'll be adjusting our Expectation Value Probability Distribution to include only ATS betting, but we'll archive the full expectations that include over/unders. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog. We included MIN -4 in our near-bets even though it had zero confidence because the unadjusted z-statistic was 57%.
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
Best bets this week include CAR +13.5, MIA +3, BUF +1, and BAL -13.
CAR +13.5
MIA +3
BUF +1
BAL -13.0
MIN -6.5
SD +3
GB -3
IND -7
