November 4th, 2009 (Over / Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Nine Free NFL Picks
November 4th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Spread |
Our Spread |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| NYG |
SD |
-4.5 |
-0.9 |
3.1 |
3 J |
L |
58.8% |
| ATL |
WAS |
-10 |
-7.1 |
1.8 |
1 L |
W |
56.1% |
| JAC |
KC |
-6.5 |
-9.4 |
1.7 |
1 L |
W |
55.9% |
| SEA |
DET |
-10 |
-6.8 |
1.2 |
0 L |
W |
55.7% |
| NE |
MIA |
-10.5 |
-7.9 |
1.3 |
0 J |
W |
54.6% |
| PHI |
DAL |
-3 |
-0.8 |
1.1 |
0 J |
L |
53.9% |
| CHI |
ARZ |
-3 |
-4.2 |
1.5 |
0 L |
L |
52.4% |
| NO |
CAR |
-13.5 |
-14.4 |
1.3 |
0 |
W |
51.7% |
| IND |
HOU |
-9.5 |
-9.1 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| CIN |
BAL |
+3 |
+3 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| TB |
GB |
+9.5 |
+11.2 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| SF |
TEN |
-4 |
-3.4 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| DEN |
PIT |
+3 |
+2.9 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| SEA |
DET |
43 |
UNDER |
1.8 |
3 L |
37.9 |
58.5% |
| NYG |
SD |
47 |
OVER |
1.4 |
1 L |
50.8 |
55.8% |
| ATL |
WAS |
41 |
UNDER |
1.3 |
0 L |
38.3 |
54% |
| DEN |
PIT |
39.5 |
OVER |
1.4 |
0 L |
42 |
53.8% |
| CIN |
BAL |
43.5 |
OVER |
1.6 |
0 L |
45.5 |
53.2% |
| TB |
GB |
43.5 |
UNDER |
1.7 |
0 L |
41.8 |
52.9% |
| PHI |
DAL |
48 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 L |
49.7 |
52.4% |
| SF |
TEN |
41 |
OVER |
1.3 |
0 |
41.4 |
50.6% |
| CHI |
ARZ |
44.5 |
OVER |
1.3 |
0 |
45.1 |
50.9% |
| NO |
CAR |
51.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
50.6 |
50% |
| IND |
HOU |
48 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
48.6 |
50% |
| NE |
MIA |
46.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
47.1 |
50% |
| JAC |
KC |
41.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
38.6 |
50% |
Week Eight was our sixth winning week (verses two losing weeks) of the season. We won 7/9 bet units. We are running 60% (53/89) YTD on bet units and 62% on best bets. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog. This week will have a lumpy expectation probability distribution because there are two triple bets and only three single unit bets.
Be sure to compare this to our season totals. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
