October 21st, 2009 (Over / Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Seven Free NFL Picks
October 21st, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Spread |
Our Spread |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| CLE |
GB |
+7 |
+12.4 |
1.8 |
3 J |
W |
60% |
| PIT |
MIN |
-4 |
+0.5 |
1.6 |
2 L |
L |
58.1% |
| CIN |
CHI |
-1 |
+2.7 |
2 |
1 L |
L |
57.1% |
| KC |
SD |
+4.5 |
+8 |
1.5 |
1 J |
W |
56% |
| HOU |
SF |
-3 |
-4.8 |
3.4 |
0 K |
W |
54.2% |
| DAL |
ATL |
-4 |
-6.2 |
1.7 |
0 J |
W |
54.1% |
| TB |
NE |
+14.5 |
+15.3 |
1.2 |
0 J |
W |
51.2% |
| NYG |
ARZ |
-7 |
-6.3 |
0.8 |
0 J |
L |
50.8% |
| CAR |
BUF |
-7 |
-7.8 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| STL |
IND |
+13 |
+13.2 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| MIA |
NO |
+6 |
+5.7 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| OAK |
NYJ |
+6 |
+5.4 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| WAS |
PHI |
+7 |
+8.4 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| STL |
IND |
45 |
UNDER |
2.1 |
2 L |
39.8 |
59.3% |
| CAR |
BUF |
37 |
OVER |
4.7 |
1 L |
39.5 |
55.5% |
| KC |
SD |
44 |
UNDER |
1.4 |
1 K |
40.4 |
55.6% |
| DAL |
ATL |
47.5 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 J |
50.1 |
53.8% |
| PIT |
MIN |
45 |
OVER |
1.5 |
0 L |
46.8 |
52.9% |
| NYG |
ARZ |
47 |
OVER |
0.8 |
0 L |
49.2 |
52.6% |
| MIA |
NO |
47 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 J |
47.7 |
51.1% |
| CLE |
GB |
41 |
UNDER |
1.1 |
0 J |
40.1 |
51.2% |
| CIN |
CHI |
42 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
41.6 |
50% |
| HOU |
SF |
44 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
45.5 |
50% |
| TB |
NE |
45 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
44.4 |
50% |
| OAK |
NYJ |
34.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
34.2 |
50% |
| WAS |
PHI |
37.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
37.1 |
50% |
Week Six was counter-intuitive for us but we trusted the model and were rewarded with 8/11 (73%). We were surprised to see the model taking Dallas and San Diego, but we're beyond questioning it at this point. Be sure to check out our newest article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines.
For new readers the green are best bets, yellow are single bets, blue are non-bet-worthy picks for office pools etc., and un-shaded are coin tosses (our model has zero confidence).
Be sure to compare this to our season totals. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
