Week 17 NFL Picks (Over/Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week 17 Free NFL Picks
Week seventeen NFL Picks (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Line |
Our Line |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| DEN |
KC |
-13 |
-9.1 |
1.4 |
2 J |
L |
57.2% |
| BUF |
IND |
-7.5 |
-4 |
1.3 |
0 L |
W |
56.3% |
| HOU |
NE |
-9 |
-5.6 |
1.3 |
0 J |
W |
56.1% |
| STL |
SF |
+7 |
+10.3 |
1.2 |
1 J |
W |
55.8% |
| DET |
CHI |
+3 |
+6.1 |
1.2 |
1 J |
W |
55.6% |
| DAL |
PHI |
-3 |
-5.2 |
1 |
1 J |
W |
53.6% |
| CLE |
JAC |
-1 |
+0.9 |
1 |
0 L |
L |
53.1% |
| ARI |
GB |
-3.5 |
-1.6 |
1 |
0 J |
L |
53% |
| TB |
ATL |
+1 |
+2.8 |
1 |
0 J |
W |
52.9% |
| NYJ |
CIN |
-10 |
-8.4 |
0.9 |
0 L |
W |
52.5% |
| MIN |
NYG |
-9 |
-7.5 |
0.9 |
0 L |
W |
52.4% |
| SD |
WAS |
-4 |
-5 |
0 |
0 |
W |
51.5% |
| SEA |
TEN |
+4 |
+4.5 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50.7% |
| CAR |
NO |
-4 |
-3.6 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50.6% |
| OAK |
BAL |
+10.5 |
+10.3 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50.3% |
| MIA |
PIT |
+1 |
+1.1 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50.2% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| DET |
CHI |
45 |
UNDER |
1.2 |
0 |
41.8 |
54.6% |
| OAK |
BAL |
38 |
UNDER |
1.1 |
0 |
35.6 |
53.3% |
| MIN |
NYG |
47.5 |
OVER |
1.1 |
0 |
49.7 |
53% |
| MIA |
PIT |
44 |
UNDER |
1.1 |
0 |
42 |
52.7% |
| TB |
ATL |
41.5 |
UNDER |
1.1 |
0 |
39.5 |
52.7% |
| DEN |
KC |
38 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
39.8 |
52.5% |
| ARI |
GB |
43.5 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
45.3 |
52.4% |
| DAL |
PHI |
47 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
48.7 |
52.3% |
| SEA |
TEN |
44 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
45.6 |
52.1% |
| STL |
SF |
40.5 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
41.7 |
51.6% |
| BUF |
IND |
38 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
36.8 |
51.6% |
| CLE |
JAC |
38.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
37.5 |
51.3% |
| CAR |
NO |
46.5 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 |
45.5 |
51.3% |
| HOU |
NE |
46 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
46.9 |
51.2% |
| SD |
WAS |
39 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
39.9 |
51.1% |
| NYJ |
CIN |
35.5 |
OVER |
0.9 |
0 |
36.2 |
50.8% |
We charted (see our index page) our ATS performance throughout the year. It was good to see that, in spite of our ups and downs, our cumulative against the spread performance has hovered right around 60% all season long. Over a course of 135 picks we've stayed around 60%. If we can maintain this in future seasons we can make a pretty penny by betting with our system (if the darn laws ever change to allow it).
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
We were happy to see our model pick KC again this week. We've been riding high on the back of Jamal Charles in our fantasy league and we like the way KC has improved over the course of the season. We've reduced our bets towards the end of the season as teams become unpredictable (sitting starters, etc).
KC +13.0
STL -7.0
CHI -3.0
DAL -3.0
JAC +1.0
GB +3.5
ATL -1.0
CIN +10.0
NYG +9.0
