October 14th, 2009 (Over / Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Six Free NFL Picks
October 14th, 2009 (Line)
Week Six is very counter-intuitive for us. We are taking statistics over guts though and holding by the model. This week should also have a more normal distribution in the expectation values as there are five single bets and the three best bets are only two units a piece.
Starting week five we no longer our zero confidence picks (50.0%) in our non-bet totals.
Be sure to compare this to our season totals. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success |
| NO |
NYG |
47.0 |
OVER |
1.5 |
2 J |
51.9 |
57.8% |
| WAS |
KC |
37.0 |
UNDER |
1.7 |
2 J |
32.8 |
56.9% |
| OAK |
PHI |
40.5 |
UNDER |
1.8 |
1 J |
37.9 |
54.4% |
| JAC |
STL |
42.5 |
UNDER |
1.6 |
0 L |
39.9 |
54.2% |
| SD |
DEN |
44.0 |
UNDER |
2.0 |
0 |
41.7 |
54.0% |
| NE |
TEN |
43.0 |
OVER |
1.4 |
0 J |
45.5 |
53.9% |
| MIN |
BAL |
43.5 |
OVER |
1.0 |
0 J |
45.8 |
53.0% |
| CIN |
HOU |
45.0 |
OVER |
2.0 |
0 K |
46.4 |
52.6% |
| GB |
DET |
48.0 |
UNDER |
0.9 |
0 J |
46.5 |
51.8% |
| TB |
CAR |
39.5 |
UNDER |
0.0 |
0 |
39.5 |
50.0% |
| SEA |
ARZ |
47.0 |
OVER |
0.0 |
0 |
48.1 |
50.0% |
| ATL |
CHI |
45.5 |
UNDER |
0.0 |
0 |
44.7 |
50.0% |
| NYJ |
BUF |
37.5 |
OVER |
0.0 |
0 |
37.8 |
50.0% |
| PIT |
CLE |
38.0 |
OVER |
0.0 |
0 |
39.4 |
50.0% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino Spread |
Our Spread |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success |
| NE |
TEN |
-9.5 |
-7.1 |
3.3 |
2 L |
W |
55.5% |
| JAC |
STL |
-9.5 |
-11.9 |
2.8 |
1 L |
W |
55.3% |
| CIN |
HOU |
-4.5 |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
1 J |
L |
56.6% |
| NYJ |
BUF |
-10.0 |
-6.9 |
1.6 |
1 J |
L |
55.6% |
| SEA |
ARZ |
-3.0 |
+0.4 |
1.3 |
0 J |
W |
55.5% |
| TB |
CAR |
+3.0 |
+5.7 |
1.6 |
1 J |
W |
54.9% |
| GB |
DET |
-13.5 |
-15.4 |
1.2 |
0 J |
W |
53.1% |
| SD |
DEN |
-3.5 |
-4.4 |
0.9 |
0 |
|
51.2% |
| OAK |
PHI |
+14.0 |
+15.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
L |
50.0% |
| ATL |
CHI |
-3.0 |
-2.5 |
0.0 |
0 |
|
50.0% |
| MIN |
BAL |
-3.0 |
-4.2 |
0.0 |
0 |
W |
50.0% |
| NO |
NYG |
-3.0 |
-2.7 |
0.0 |
0 |
W |
50.0% |
| WAS |
KC |
-6.5 |
-5.5 |
0.0 |
0 |
L |
50.0% |
| PIT |
CLE |
-14.0 |
-14.3 |
0.0 |
0 |
W |
50.0% |
