Week Sixteen Free NFL Picks

Home	Away	Casino Line	Our Line	Confi dence	Bet Units	No Line	Z (Prob of Success)
CIN	KC	-13.5	-10.1	1.3	2 J	W	56.1%
TEN	SD	-3	+0.4	1.3	0 J	W	56.1%
NO	TB	-14.5	-17.2	1.2	0 L	L	54.8%
ARI	STL	-14	-16.6	1.1	0 J	W	54.5%
PHI	DEN	-7	-4.6	1.1	1 J	W	54.2%
NE	JAC	-9	-6.7	1.1	1 L	W	53.9%
SF	DET	-12	-14.3	1.1	1 J	W	53.8%
IND	NYJ	-5.5	-7.6	1	0 L	W	53.6%
NYG	CAR	-7	-5.3	1	0 J	L	52.6%
CHI	MIN	+7	+8.6	1	0 L	L	52.6%
CLE	OAK	-3	-1.9	0.9	0	W	51.7%
ATL	BUF	-9	-8	0.9	0	W	51.5%
PIT	BAL	-1	-1.9	0.8	0	W	51.3%
WAS	DAL	+6.5	+5.7	0.8	0	W	51.2%
MIA	HOU	-3	-2.4	0.8	0	L	50.8%
GB	SEA	-14	-13.7	0.7	0	W	50.4%

Home	Away	Casino OU	We Take	Confi dence	Bet Units	Our OU	Z (Prob of Success)
CLE	OAK	38	UNDER	1.5	0	33.3	57.4%
ATL	BUF	41	UNDER	1.4	0	37	56.1%
CHI	MIN	41	OVER	1.2	0	44	54.4%
PIT	BAL	41.5	UNDER	1.2	0	38.7	54%
NO	TB	49	OVER	1.1	0	51.3	53.2%
WAS	DAL	42.5	OVER	1	0	44.6	52.9%
MIA	HOU	45	UNDER	1	0	42.9	52.8%
ARI	STL	43.5	OVER	1	0	45	52%
GB	SEA	41.5	OVER	0.9	0	42.7	51.5%
IND	NYJ	40.5	OVER	0.9	0	41.6	51.4%
TEN	SD	47	OVER	0.8	0	47.6	50.7%
SF	DET	41	OVER	0.8	0	41.5	50.7%
NE	JAC	44	OVER	0.8	0	44.5	50.6%
PHI	DEN	41.5	OVER	0.8	0	42	50.6%
CIN	KC	40	OVER	0.8	0	40.2	50.2%
NYG	CAR	42.5	OVER	0.8	0	42.6	50.1%

After going 8/8 against the spread (11/11 on bet units) in week 14 we had a rough week 15 (2/6, 4/10). Weeks 16 and 17 are very tough because of the unpredictability of whether and which teams will have what degree of motivation to win. As a result some teams with high Z-statistics are still not bet on (0 units).

Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.

We do like KC +13.5 this week - they don't need to be saving anyone for the playoffs and they're playing more interesting football (they will probably be scorched in the running game, but a run heavy game bodes well for taking the points).