November 11th, 2009 (Over/Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Ten Free NFL Picks
November 11th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Spread |
Our Spread |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| NYJ |
JAC |
-7 |
-1.5 |
2.5 |
2 J |
L |
62.4% |
| STL |
NO |
+13.5 |
+19.8 |
1.8 |
2 L |
W |
62.6% |
| SF |
CHI |
-3 |
+1 |
2.9 |
1 L |
L |
59.5% |
| MIN |
DET |
-16.5 |
-20.5 |
1.9 |
1 J |
W |
58.4% |
| IND |
NE |
-3 |
-0.6 |
1.2 |
0 J |
W |
54.2% |
| CLE |
BAL |
+10.5 |
+13.3 |
0.9 |
0 J |
W |
54.4% |
| CAR |
ATL |
+1 |
+1.8 |
1.3 |
0 |
L |
51.5% |
| MIA |
TB |
-10 |
-10.8 |
1 |
0 |
W |
51.3% |
| WAS |
DEN |
+3.5 |
+4 |
0.8 |
0 |
L |
50.7% |
| ARZ |
SEA |
-9 |
-7.7 |
0.7 |
0 |
W |
51.7% |
| GB |
DAL |
+3 |
+2.6 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| SD |
PHI |
-1 |
+0.6 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| PIT |
CIN |
-7 |
-7 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| TEN |
BUF |
-6.5 |
-6.7 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| OAK |
KC |
-1.0 |
-0.7 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| OAK |
KC |
36.5 |
UNDER |
1.9 |
2 J |
30.6 |
59.9% |
| MIA |
TB |
43.5 |
UNDER |
2.8 |
2 L |
39.5 |
57.7% |
| GB |
DAL |
47.5 |
OVER |
1.4 |
1 L |
51.5 |
56.1% |
| MIN |
DET |
47 |
OVER |
2.3 |
0 L |
49.6 |
54.8% |
| WAS |
DEN |
37 |
UNDER |
1.4 |
0 L |
33.7 |
55.1% |
| NYJ |
JAC |
40.5 |
OVER |
1.5 |
0 J |
43.6 |
54.9% |
| PIT |
CIN |
41.5 |
OVER |
1.4 |
0 L |
44.7 |
54.9% |
| TEN |
BUF |
41 |
UNDER |
1.2 |
0 L |
39 |
53% |
| SF |
CHI |
43 |
OVER |
1.2 |
0 L |
44.8 |
52.6% |
| STL |
NO |
50 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
49.9 |
50% |
| IND |
NE |
49.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
50.7 |
50% |
| ARZ |
SEA |
47.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
47.3 |
50% |
| SD |
PHI |
47 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
47 |
50% |
| CAR |
ATL |
43.5 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
44.6 |
50% |
| CLE |
BAL |
40 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
38.4 |
50% |
Week Nine was our third losing week (vs six winning weeks) and our worst week of the season (33%). While this was humbling, it isn't unexpected. Most weeks have a 65% - 70% of winning for the week (individual bets are 55% - 62%) and we've won 67% of the season's weeks. We are running 57% (56/98) YTD on bet units and 62% on best bets, which also has us near the center of our Expectation Value Probability Distribution. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog.
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
