Happy's Free Picks J
Week Three Free NFL Picks

September 23rd, 2009 (Line)

Home	Away	Casino Spread	Our Spread	Confi dence	Bet Units	Z (Prob of Success)
DAL	CAR	DAL -9	DAL -5.9	6	4 L	59.2%
STL	GB	STL +6.5	STL +9.1	1	2 J	57.7%
OAK	DEN	OAK +1	OAK -1.3	0.2	1 L	56.6%
SD	MIA	SD -6	SD -7.6	0.2	0 J	54.6%
CIN	PIT	CIN +4	CIN +2.6	0.3	0 J	54.1%
PHI	KC	PHI -9.5	PHI -9.2	0.3	0 L	50.9%
ARZ	IND	ARZ -1	ARZ +1.1	0	0 J	56.3%
SEA	CHI	SEA +1	SEA +2.9	0	0 J	55.7%
DET	WAS	DET +6	DET +7.9	0	0 L	55.6%
TB	NYG	TB +6.5	TB +8	0	0 J	54.4%
MIN	SF	MIN -7	MIN -8.1	0	0 L	53.2%
HOU	JAC	HOU -3.5	HOU -4.5	0	0 L	52.9%
NYJ	TEN	NYJ -1	0.0 PICK	0	0 L	52.9%
NE	ATL	NE -4	NE -3	0	0 L	52.8%
BUF	NO	BUF +6	BUF +5.6	0	0 L	51.2%
BAL	CLE	BAL -13	BAL -13	0	0 L	50.7%

Home	Away	Casino OU	We Take	Confi dence	Bet Units	Our OU	Z (Prob of Success)
PHI	KC	42	UNDER	0.9	2 L	37.6	61.5%
NE	ATL	45	OVER	0.5	1 L	47.9	57.8%
HOU	JAC	46.5	OVER	0.4	1 J	49.4	57.6%
NYJ	TEN	37	OVER	0.4	1 J	39.4	56.4%
CIN	PIT	37	OVER	3.0	2 J	39.4	56.3%
STL	GB	41	UNDER	0.7	1 L	39	55.3%
MIN	SF	40	OVER	0.3	0 J	41.8	54.7%
BUF	NO	52	OVER	1.5	0 L	53.3	53.5%
SD	MIA	44	UNDER	0.3	0 J	43.3	51.7%
BAL	CLE	38.5	UNDER	0	0 J	36.1	56.3%
DAL	CAR	47.5	UNDER	0	0 J	46.1	53.8%
DET	WAS	38.5	UNDER	0	0 J	37.1	53.8%
OAK	DEN	36	UNDER	0	0 J	34.6	53.8%
ARZ	IND	48.5	UNDER	0	0 J	47.7	52.2%
TB	NYG	44	OVER	0	0 L	44.7	52.0%
SEA	CHI	37	OVER	0	0 J	37.1	50.3

September 23rd, 2009 (Over / Under)

By far our worst week so far.  Future work is to compute the odds of a winning week based on the statistical probability of winning each bet.  Even casinos lose one out of every seven days. J

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