November 25th, 2009 (Over/Under)
Happy's Free Picks J
Week Twelve Free NFL Picks
November 25th, 2009 (Line)
| Home |
Away |
Casino Line |
Our Line |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
No Line |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| SF |
JAC |
-3 |
+1.2 |
2.6 |
2 L |
L |
59.7% |
| DET |
GB |
+11 |
+15.7 |
1.6 |
2 J |
W |
59.3% |
| NYJ |
CAR |
-3 |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
1 L |
W |
55.8% |
| TEN |
ARZ |
-1 |
+1.9 |
1.9 |
1 L |
L |
56.2% |
| ATL |
TB |
-11.5 |
-7.9 |
1.4 |
1 J |
W |
56.7% |
| MIN |
CHI |
-10.5 |
-14 |
1.2 |
1 J |
W |
56.1% |
| CIN |
CLE |
-14 |
-11.3 |
1.1 |
0 J |
W |
54.6% |
| BUF |
MIA |
+3.5 |
+4.5 |
1.4 |
0 |
L |
52% |
| PHI |
WAS |
-9 |
-9.9 |
0.9 |
0 |
W |
51.4% |
| SD |
KC |
-13.5 |
-14.3 |
0.8 |
0 |
W |
51.2% |
| DAL |
OAK |
-13.5 |
-15.3 |
0.6 |
0 |
W |
52.3% |
| NO |
NE |
-3 |
-2.9 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| HOU |
IND |
+3.5 |
+3.7 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| BAL |
PIT |
-2.5 |
-1.2 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| DEN |
NYG |
+6.5 |
+6.2 |
0 |
0 |
L |
50% |
| STL |
SEA |
+3 |
+4.3 |
0 |
0 |
W |
50% |
| Home |
Away |
Casino OU |
We Take |
Confi dence |
Bet Units |
Our OU |
Z (Prob of Success) |
| BUF |
MIA |
40 |
UNDER |
5.5 |
2 L |
35.1 |
60.7% |
| DEN |
NYG |
42 |
OVER |
4.4 |
1 L |
44.5 |
55.4% |
| MIN |
CHI |
47 |
OVER |
1.6 |
1 L |
50.1 |
54.9% |
| NO |
NE |
55.5 |
OVER |
1.5 |
1 L |
58.3 |
54.5% |
| TEN |
ARZ |
47 |
OVER |
2 |
0 |
48.4 |
52.6% |
| SF |
JAC |
41.5 |
OVER |
1 |
0 |
42.6 |
51.4% |
| HOU |
IND |
48.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
47.4 |
50% |
| DET |
GB |
47.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
47.4 |
50% |
| ATL |
TB |
46 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
44.4 |
50% |
| SD |
KC |
44.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
43.8 |
50% |
| BAL |
PIT |
42 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
41.7 |
50% |
| STL |
SEA |
42 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
40 |
50% |
| NYJ |
CAR |
41.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
40.9 |
50% |
| PHI |
WAS |
40.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
39.2 |
50% |
| DAL |
OAK |
40 |
OVER |
0 |
0 |
42.2 |
50% |
| CIN |
CLE |
39.5 |
UNDER |
0 |
0 |
39.2 |
50% |
Week Eleven was rough (6/13). Our YTD bet units fell to 56% with best bets falling to 59% and non-bets steady at 55%. We are a little to the left but still near the center our Expectation Value Probability Distribution. Be sure to check out our article on Converting Pointspreads to Moneylines if you want a little extra excitement and you're taking an underdog.
Be sure to check out our benchmarking pages for links to other oddsmakers and comparison of our system to theirs. Also check out our discussion of parlay betting, setting realistic expectations for sports betting, and past pick details.
It's hard not to cave to our intuition, especially after the KC vs PIT game. We wanted to take KC in that game but the model said PIT. But while the model will occasionally be wrong, our intuition couldn't hold 56% on over 100 bet units.
JAC +3
GB -11
CAR +3
ARZ +1
TB +11.5
MIN - 10.5
U40 MIA VS BUF
O42 NYG VS DEN
O47 MIN VS CHI
O55.5 NO VS NE
